NBA free agent market is no longer the crazy feast that used to be, because players at the maximum and super maximum salary levels often deal with their situation by renewing their contracts early, and then forcefully demand a deal when they want to change the environment. This means that the days when Kawhi Leonard is closely watching whereabouts may be completely past.
Specifically this summer, the free agent lineup in 2025 will definitely be star-studded...but there is an important special situation. Those most well-known names - LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, James Harden - are likely not going to enter the free agent market at all. These three players, along with some other key potential free agents, all hold player options. And they will likely execute these options by the end of June deadline, or sign a long contract with the team through renegotiation. Either way, no other teams will get a real chance to win over these players.
With that being said, we'll see surprises every offseason, and there are still some players who can change the situation and may join a new team. Here is a list of the top 10 NBA free agents in 2025 and the possibility of their actual team change this summer.
1, LeBron James
Los Angeles Lakers Small Forward
Status: Player Options ($53 million)
Possibility of leaving the team: 1/10
LeBron James will almost cause a sensation like Luca Doncic was initially traded there. When James holds the player option, he usually puts pressure on his team to make sure they aren't content with the status quo, but there's absolutely no indication that he's interested in playing for any team outside the Lakers next season. In fact, it was reported that James did not plan to sign a new contract, but simply executed his player options and played the season. This means we may not really see James change teams next summer, but it all depends on how the Lakers perform in the 2025-26 season.
2, James Harden
Los Angeles Clippers Point Guard
Status: Player Options ($36 million)
Possibility of leaving: 2/10
There are reports that Harden tends to give up his player Options, but it would be extremely surprising that he leaves the Clippers. The more likely scenario is to complete a renewal, which makes Harden's contract consistent with Leonard's contract ended in the 2026-27 season. Harden's final salary amount will be very worthy of attention, as he suffered a loss in the Philadelphia 76ers' salary cut a few years ago and may be reluctant to do so again.
3, Kyrie Irving
Dallas Mavericks Point Guard
Status: Player Options ($44 million)
Possibility of departure: 0/10
Athletes who have just undergone ACL surgery usually do not reject the money already on the table, and Irving certainly won't. The only question is whether Irving will execute his $44 million option or sign a longer-term contract with the Mavericks, which will guarantee him. And it is speculated that this can also slightly relieve the financial pressure for the Mavericks. In any case, even if Irving can play in the 2025-26 season, he will still receive a large amount of compensation.
4, Julius Randle
Minnesota Timberwolves Power Forward
Status: Player Options ($31 million)
Possibility of departure: 5/10
For Randle, the situation is a bit tricky, and he is expected to choose to abandon his $31 million player option. Randall will either test the free agent market or sign a long-term contract with the Timberwolves. The Timberwolves face growing salary pressure and will have to make difficult decisions about how to keep Randall, Naz Reed and Nikkiel Alexander Walker, all of which could be members of free agents. The guy who left the Timberwolves probably wouldn't be Randle, but there is enough uncertainty to make things interesting. In addition, there is a trading plan for Kevin Durant, which may require Randall's contract to balance salary, so this is also a point that needs attention.
5, Myers Turner
Indiana Pacers Center
Status: Full free agent
Possibility of leaving: 4/10
Turner is the highest-ranked full free agent among this class. But reports suggest that after a playoff journey that eventually reached the NBA Finals, people simply didn't believe Turner would leave the Pacers. That being said, Turner’s rare combination of three-point shots and basket protection makes him an attractive option for many teams, so if he chooses to get into the choppy free agent market, he will not lack suitors.
6, Fred Van Vliott
Houston Rockets Point Guard
Status: Team Options ($45 million)
Possibility of leaving: 2/10
Paying Van Vliott nearly $50 million in one season, which seems to be a big sum of money, and the Rockets management can certainly come up with a more cautious way to spend money. The most likely scenario is that the team abandons the option and reaches a long-term contract with Van Vritte. After all, whether it is a team’s point guard or a mentor to young players, Van Vreet is crucial. In any case, reports show that the possibility of Van Vreet wearing different team jerseys next season is slim. The two sides agreed to postpone the decision date for the option until the end of June, which gave the Rockets some time to look at any deal that could require $45 million to balance their salary (ahem, Kevin Durant,ahem). You never know what will happen, but it looks like Van Vreet is about to stay with the Rockets.
7, Naz Reed
Minnesota Timberwolves Center
Status: Player Options ($15 million)
Possibility of departure: 7/10
Unless the miracle described in the Bible happens, Reed will give up his mere $15 million salary next season to get a contract closer to his own value - and the Timberwolves will struggle to pay the salary he deserves. Given that Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and (potentially) Julius Randall's contracts all occupy cap space, the Timberwolves will have to weigh the idea of adding another big spend, while also considering how to find alternatives to Reed - owning one of the league's rarest technical portfolio of inside players. The sixth man of the year has shown that he can adapt to the starting or substitute role, which will only enhance his appeal after entering the free agent market.
8, Josh Gidey
Chicago Bulls Point Guard
Status: Restricted free agent
Possibility of leaving: 5/10
Gidey was one of the most impressive players in the league in the second half of his first season with the Bulls (he averaged 19 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists in the last 30 games), so his value may never be so high. It is reported that Gidey and the Bulls are gradually reaching a five-year early contract renewal worth about $120 million. That being said, the flaws that made him almost dispensable with the Oklahoma City Thunder could make suitors—including the Bulls—more alert to investing a lot of money in Gidedy. There are also rumors that the Bulls will only leave one of Gidey and Kobe White, so if they think White is a better long-term candidate, it's entirely possible that they will refuse to match any offer contracts Gidey received.
9, Jonathan Kumingga
Golden State Warriors Power Forward
Status: Restricted free agent
Possibility of leaving the team: 7/10
After four turbulent seasons, the Warriors' relationship with Kumingga does indeed come to an end...or isn't it? The talented striker has expressed concerns about his role many times, and Steve Cole recently said he was worried about his role with Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler for a long time. However, the only situation that seems to get Kumingga back is if his market is so weak that the Warriors can eventually sign him with a reasonable salary. That's why there are reports that the Warriors may complete a contract renewal with Cuminga and then seek a deal during the season to reclaim some value. While this is certainly possible, there are speculations that Kumingga may appear in a sign-and-for-change trade this offseason as the Warriors try to strengthen their roster.
10, Malik Beasley
Detroit Pistons Scoreback
Status: Complete free agent
Possibility of leaving: 6/10
After the outbreak season in which the total three-point shooting ranks second in the league, Beasley and the Pistons hope most are to recreate this glory. The problem is that Beasley's outstanding performance may have exceeded the Pistons' tolerance — especially as Cad Cunningham's maximum salary contract is about to take effect. The Pistons may have to use a $14 million middle class exception to sign Beasley, but that will leave them in any other operation. Another possibility is that a team that desperately needs a shooter will offer Beasley a high contract, and the Pistons simply cannot match.
Author: Colin Ward-Henninger
Translator: GWayNe